世卫说:冠状病毒大流行将在几个月后结束!

德国热线 03-04

世界卫生组织报告,全球感染人数急剧下降。尽管突变猖獗,但冠状病毒却出人意料地快速丧失其力度。研究人员发现到过去大流行的模式,并以令人惊讶的良好预期发出新的希望。

德国担心目前发生的病毒突变和第三波疫情冲击,不敢解开封锁,但世界卫生组织在全球范围内报告称,这种流行病令人吃惊地缓解了。全球感染已连续六周大规模下降,比预期的要强得多和快得多。根据官方数据,全球大流行在1月的第二周达到顶峰。当时,每天有超过70万人感染。现在,仅六周后,这一数字仅为35万,仅为一半。这一趋势在几乎所有大洲都急剧下降(东地中海区域除外)。

尽管突变的病毒在大多数国家对感染产生了影响,然而各地还是放开了严格的封锁措施。

仍会有病毒,限制没有必要

在一个月之内和新冠感染相关的死亡人数也减少了一半。自大流行爆发以来,全球死亡人数首次下降。世卫组织总干事谭德赛警告:“现在我们必须稳定积极的趋势。大火尚未熄灭,如果我们不进一步与之斗争,它将再次燃烧。”

然而世卫总干事谭德赛和其他世卫官员分析和评价明确说,最新的进展“非常令人鼓舞”,是“转折点”。世卫组织欧洲区主任克鲁格甚至在丹麦国家广播公司DR上宣布,冠状病毒大流行将在几个月后结束!克鲁格预测最坏的情况现在已经过去。“仍然会有病毒,但是我认为没有任何限制是必要的。这是一个乐观的声明。”

发生突变的国家感染率也有所下降

世卫组织的这一宣布为德国宽松辩论给出令人鼓舞的信号。最重要的是,从世卫组织的数字看来,德国夸大了对突变的恐惧。世卫欧洲代表克鲁格说,突变是“正常的”突变,不会导致病毒失控。实际上,突变发生率较高的国家/地区的感染率正与其他国家一样急剧下降,例如在南非,一周之内下降了33%。

疫苗接种尚不能引起感染数量的大幅下降,因为到目前为止,世界上只有一小部分人接种了疫苗。据专家介绍,感染数量突然下降的主要原因有三个:

  • 首先,很多国家都采取了有效的预防和卫生措施。

  • 第二,越来越多的地区已经对人群进行了进一步的免疫感染(例如美国,瑞典和巴西),因为很大一部分人口已经被感染,减缓了进一步扩散。

  • 第三,病毒突变的发展显然导致病毒突变不仅不再是更加危险,而且变得更加无害。通常,大流行通常是通过变异成为比其原始病毒致病性更低而最终结束。

病毒突变是大流行结束的开始

曾经担任世卫组织全球流感规划领导的的流行病学家斯托尔(Klaus Stöhr)也曾参与世卫组织的Sars研究协调工作,他在数周前就曾指出,根据历史经验,感染数量会突然下降。

1957年(亚洲流感,造成2-4百万人死亡)和1968年(香港流感,造成1-3百万人死亡)这两次主要的流感大流行随着疫情的爆发而迅速崩溃。1918/19年的西班牙流感(超过5000万人死亡)也是第二波中最致命,在第三波之后不久很快就过去了。但是这些病毒从未消失,病原体今天仍然存在, H1N1病毒就已经被削弱为“正常”流感。

这意味着:突变通常是大流行结束的开始。著名的专业杂志《科学》发表了由美国亚特兰大和宾夕法尼亚大学的研究人员进行的一项研究,预言冠状病毒将很快成为“地方性”病毒,局限在地区性继续传播。因此,病原体在可预见的将来可能会不再令人恐惧。全球疫苗接种运动将加速这一充满希望的的过程。

杜塞尔多夫大学医学史研究所所长Heiner Fangerau也表示,鉴于西班牙流感很快结束,“我预期,新冠大流行也会相似。”吉森大学的病毒学家弗里德曼·韦伯(Friedemann Weber)也预言:“ 2021年春季应该没什么艰难的,夏天几乎恢复正常,秋天会和往常一样。”

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